Headline Description
The Happy Jack wind project has has been operational since July 2008 with a total of 14 turbines and an overall nameplate capacity of 29.4 MW. It is located 25 miles west of Cheyenne WY. The surrounding terrain can be described as gentle rolling hills. A full video review of project performance can be found on the associated YouTube channel.
A playlist of all reviewed projects has been compliled and can be viewed here. Detailed information about the analysis as well as specifics on using the website has been are also available.
| Month | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5.879 | 0.85 | 4.45 | 7.33 |
| February | 5.846 | 0.66 | 4.23 | 7.09 |
| March | 5.742 | 0.51 | 4.58 | 6.41 |
| April | 5.924 | 0.65 | 5.07 | 7.11 |
| May | 5.052 | 0.5 | 4.11 | 6.27 |
| June | 4.679 | 0.35 | 4.06 | 5.14 |
| July | 4.159 | 0.3 | 3.67 | 4.66 |
| August | 4.157 | 0.23 | 3.8 | 4.61 |
| September | 4.345 | 0.22 | 3.87 | 4.64 |
| October | 5.012 | 0.49 | 4.18 | 5.82 |
| November | 5.546 | 0.61 | 4.45 | 6.9 |
| December | 5.876 | 0.48 | 5.19 | 6.93 |
Detailed Project Data
Wind energy projects are often built in phases. The most important consideration for this analysis is to take into account that sometimes multiple phases are included in the EIA energy data. New phases of existing projects which get their own EIA number are treated as seperate projects.
Projects which have multiple turbine types are counted as different phases in this analysis. Mixed turbine projects have become more popular, driven by considerations surrounding internal wake effects, master supply agreements, and the like.
Phase 1 of the project consists of 14 Suzlon S88/2200 wind turbines. The phase reached operational status by July of 2008 at latest.
It is usually true that energy reported to the EIA represents energy sold, typically through a power purchase agreement or controlled by a hedge agreement, at a single interconnection point. This interconnection point is at the end of a tie line which connects the project substation to the grid via an interconnection substation.
Energy Production
Energy data is sourced from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) via an API provided by the federal government. It is assumed that the measurement is taken at the point of interconnection and therefore all possible losses are baked into the results. Energy data is available beginning January 2009 with the most recent available data dating to August 2023. The EIA database is checked on a regular basis and a new analysis with new data.
- The highest average production month is January with an average of 9,439 MWhs.
- January production ranges from a minimum of 5,888 MWhs to a maximum of 12,498 MWhs.
- The lowest average production month is August with an average of 3,936 MWhs.
- August production ranges from a minimum of 1,882 MWh's to a maximum of 5,701 MWh's.
- Minimum yearly generation was in 2021 when 67,746 MWh's of energy was generated.
- Maximum yearly generation was in 2011 when 90,152 MWh's of energy was generated.
- The average yearly generation of the project is 81,597 MWh's.
Wind Profile
Wind data is currently sourced from automated surface observation stations (ASOS) and the ERA-5 reanalysis data set. These data are downloaded from government sources, saved in the original format, then filtered into the database. The current filter summarizes monthly wind speeds, temperatures, and wind directions; however, if more granular energy data becomes available, the analysis can be adjusted to that level of granularity (six hours for ASOS, hour by hour for ERA-5).
Historical data for the ASOS data:
- The highest average wind speed month is April with an average wind speed of 5.924 m/s.
- April wind speeds range from a minimum of 5.07 m/s to a maximum of 7.11 m/s.
- The lowest average wind speed month is August with an average wind speed of 4.157 m/s.
- August wind speeds range from a minimum of 3.8 m/s to a maximum of 4.61 m/s.
Historical data for the ERA-5 data:
- The highest average wind speed month is December with an average wind speed of 4.688 m/s.
- December wind speeds range from a minimum of 4.01 m/s to a maximum of 5.29 m/s.
- The lowest average wind speed month is July with an average wind speed of 2.692 m/s.
- July wind speeds range from a minimum of 2.45 m/s to a maximum of 2.96 m/s.
Regression Model
The best ASOS data set has a r-squared of 72.4%. Total yearly production is esimated as 81,691 MWh's based on monthly average wind speeds. This is 0.326% different from the historical yearly production of 80,657 MWh's. This r-squared result shows a strong correlation.
The best ERA-5 data set has a r-squared of 79.7%. Total yearly production is esimated as 80,174 MWh's based on monthly average wind speeds. This is -0.027% different from the historical yearly production of 80,657 MWh's. This r-squared result shows a strong correlation.